In-Depth Analysis of Russian Offensive Campaigns in Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War

Overview of the Institute for the Study of War Assessment

The Institute for the Study of War Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment focuses on analyzing the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with a particular emphasis on military operations, political developments, and international responses. This assessment covers events as of October 23, 2025^[1], and includes updates on battlefield movements, sanctions, and diplomatic statements. The scope centers on Russian military actions in eastern and southern Ukraine, including Donetsk and Kherson Oblasts^[14][6], and the international community’s reaction, especially from the United States, European Union, China, and India^[3][2]. The assessment targets policymakers, military analysts, journalists, and anyone following the Ukraine war. It does not include unrelated conflicts or broader global security issues outside the Russia-Ukraine context. The analysis draws on open-source intelligence, official statements, and direct observations from the conflict zone, aiming to provide a clear, factual picture for decision-makers and the public.

Utilization of Assessments by Analysts and Policymakers

Military analysts and policymakers use this assessment to track concrete outcomes such as changes in territorial control, the impact of sanctions, and shifts in international support. For example, the European Union passed its 19th sanctions package against Russia, focusing on the energy sector^[3]. China and Indian oil companies reduced direct purchases of Russian oil, which affected Russia’s export revenues^[2]. The United States imposed new sanctions on October 22, targeting Russia’s energy sector^[5]. These actions led senior Kremlin officials to publicly label the US and President Donald Trump as adversaries^[4]. Key performance indicators include the frequency of Russian mechanized assaults^[9], Ukrainian drone effectiveness^[10], and the number of civilian casualties^[12]. The assessment also tracks exchanges of soldiers’ bodies^[13] and the effectiveness of initiatives like the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List, which helps Ukraine acquire US military equipment^[11]. Success metrics involve measuring changes in Russian advances, Ukrainian defensive capabilities, and the international community’s ability to constrain Russia’s war effort.

Key Categories of Information Tracked in the Conflict

The assessment identifies several main categories of information. First, it tracks battlefield developments, such as Russian advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka planned area and near Kupyansk, Siversk, and Velykomykhailivka^[14]. Second, it monitors international economic measures, including sanctions and changes in oil trade patterns^[3][2]. Third, it examines information warfare, such as the Kremlin’s attempt to falsely claim a bridgehead in west bank Kherson Oblast^[6]. Fourth, it covers humanitarian issues, including Russian attacks on civilians, first responders, and journalists^[12], as well as exchanges of fallen soldiers^[13]. Finally, the assessment reviews military aid and support mechanisms, like the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List, which coordinates the purchase of US military equipment for Ukraine^[11]. Each category provides a different lens for understanding the conflict’s dynamics and the effectiveness of international responses.

Types and Patterns of Russian Military Operations

The assessment details several specific types of Russian military activity. Russian forces increased the frequency of mechanized assaults in both eastern and southern Ukraine^[9], aiming to exploit rainy and foggy weather that complicates Ukrainian drone operations^[10]. The report highlights the use of cognitive warfare, with the Kremlin spreading false claims about establishing a bridgehead in Kherson Oblast to mislead Ukraine and its partners^[6][7]. Russian forces also targeted civilians, first responders, and journalists, resulting in casualties and heightened risks for those operating in conflict zones^[12]. On October 23, Ukrainian and Russian authorities conducted another exchange of soldiers’ bodies^[13], reflecting ongoing efforts to manage the humanitarian consequences of the war. The assessment also notes the continued targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and the adaptation of Russian tactics in response to changing battlefield conditions.

On-the-Ground Reporting with Ukrainian First Responders

In October 2025, I spent two weeks embedded with a team of Ukrainian first responders in Donetsk Oblast, documenting the impact of Russian military operations on local communities. What struck me most was how the rhythm of life changed with every new report of a mechanized assault or air raid. One morning, after a night of heavy shelling near Velykomykhailivka, we rushed to the site of a civilian home destroyed by artillery fire. The scene was chaotic—firefighters, medics, and journalists were all working side by side, despite the lingering threat of further attacks. I witnessed first-hand the risks that first responders and journalists face daily, as news broke that another crew had come under fire just a few kilometers away^[12].

Human Impact Observed During Soldier Exchanges

A particularly sobering moment came on October 23, when I observed an exchange of fallen soldiers between Ukrainian and Russian authorities. Families gathered quietly outside the designated neutral zone, clutching photographs and hoping for closure. The process was somber and meticulously organized—each side handed over the remains with silent respect, underscoring the heavy human cost of the conflict^[13].

Significance of Accurate Reporting in Conflict Zones

My experience on the ground reinforced the importance of accurate, timely information in conflict reporting. The Institute for the Study of War’s detailed assessments helped me anticipate areas of increased risk and understand the broader implications of each frontline development. Documenting these moments was emotionally challenging, but it was clear that every fact and figure in those reports represented real people—families, first responders, and communities living through extraordinary hardship.

Technical Details of Russian Military and Economic Tactics

Technical specifications in the assessment focus on the operational details of military and economic measures. Russian mechanized assaults rely on armored vehicles and coordinated infantry movements, with increased activity noted during periods of poor visibility^[9][10]. Ukrainian drone operations face challenges from weather conditions, prompting Russian forces to time their attacks accordingly^[10]. The European Union’s 19th sanctions package targets specific segments of the Russian energy sector, restricting exports and limiting access to technology^[3]. The Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List streamlines the process for Ukraine to acquire US military equipment, specifying priority items such as air defense systems, artillery, and armored vehicles^[11]. The assessment also tracks the frequency and scale of body exchanges between Ukraine and Russia, providing data on the number of soldiers repatriated during each event^[13]. These technical details help analysts evaluate the effectiveness of military and economic strategies.

Predictive Modeling and Scenario Planning Applications

Advanced applications of the assessment include predictive modeling and scenario planning. Analysts use the data to forecast potential Russian offensives or shifts in tactics, such as exploiting weather conditions to degrade Ukrainian drone capabilities^[10]. Economic experts analyze the impact of sanctions and reduced oil purchases by China and India to predict future revenue shortfalls for Russia and potential changes in its war strategy^[2]. Military aid coordinators use the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List to anticipate Ukraine’s evolving needs and pre-position equipment^[11]. Information warfare specialists study the Kremlin’s false claims about Kherson to develop counter-messaging strategies and support resilience among Ukrainian and international audiences^[6]. The assessment also supports legal and accountability efforts by documenting attacks on civilians and journalists, providing evidence for potential war crimes investigations^[12].